Flash Analysis: Considering Humanitarian response planning for Ukraine based on recent UK Ministry of Defence warning.

By Thomas Byrnes on 18/02/2022

This note was created to promote discussion on this topic and as such cannot consider all potential issues but aims to raise awareness of potential preparedness steps that different actors may wish to consider.

This rapid analysis has been undertaken by the Market Impact team, to assess the humanitarian impact of the recent UK Ministry of Defence Scenario of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine and identify what a potential humanitarian response to it could entail. It cannot assess the probability of if this scenario takes place, as that is outside of the competency of the MarketImpact team and is intended only to support discussions on the topic and preparedness planning efforts. 

The UK Ministry of Defence Scenario 

On the 17th of February 2022, the UK Ministry of defence shared the below image on their Twitter account outlining what they see as the most likely of an invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, which would target the country via seven potential axis of military advance. (We have labelled each axis for clarity.) 

Humanitarian Impact of the Scenario. 

If we theoretically assume for planning purposes this is correct, then by looking at Ukraine’s population data we can start to map out the potential humanitarian impact for the people on the ground of Ukraine.

Ukraine has 27 regions or Oblasts, and by mapping out the different axis of invasions on to the regions and combining it with the most recent population estimates from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, we can see that in total 11 of these regions with an estimated population of 23.6 million[1] people could potentially be impacted by fighting directly and at risk of becoming displaced. 

To put these numbers in comparison we can examine Humanitarian response plans developed by the UN for different countries and see that Syria Crisis has 14 million people in need, and Yemen has 20.7 million in 2022.[2] As such if even part of the UK government outlined plan came to pass then Ukraine would rapidly become one of the largest, (if not largest) humanitarian responses globally. 

Based on past displacement crises, if we see a scenario of large-scale conflict between two modern armed forces, we can expect to see large scale conflict-induced displacement of the population. We do not feel confident to estimate potential displacement numbers but if only 30% of the population in these areas were displaced, this would correspond to 7 million people displaced from their homes, during the coldest months of the year.  For comparison, an estimated 6.7 million people have been displaced from Syria since the start of the conflict there.[3] 

Response analysis 

Ukraine currently has an active Humanitarian response targeting 1.8 million people,[4] made up of national NGOs, International NGOs, the Red Cross movement and United Nations agencies. There is a Humanitarian Country Team, made up of INGO and UN leadership, and an activated cluster system made up of different clusters including Shelter/Non-food Items (NFI); Food Security and Livelihoods (FSL); Protection; Health and Water and Sanitation. In 2021 $102.4 million was committed to Humanitarian funding for Ukraine for 2022, as per UN OCHA tracking of donor commitments. 

However, the scale of the response, If the UK MOD scenario were to take place, would immediately challenge this system, which would have to be rapidly scaled up and expanded in geographical scope, its ability to implement and coordinate as most current activities are clustered along the line of conflict in the east. 

An example of the challenge of the scale-up can be identified via looking at the potential use of multi-purpose cash assistance to rapidly responds to cover basic needs. 

Since the very beginning of humanitarian response in Ukraine, multipurpose cash (MPC) transfers have been one of the most appropriate and timely modalities to address the immediate multiple needs of the affected population. Cash-based interventions in general and MPC programmes specifically are fit for purpose in the emergency context: they assist people in meeting their multiple basic needs while also contributing to local economic recovery or even growth through an injection of cash into markets that have functioning supply chains and absorption capacity, and those offer goods produced locally. To determine an appropriate benchmark amount of humanitarian assistance that should be distributed as MPC, the Cash Working Group (CWG) has been facilitating analysis of the income gap between the actual subsistence level and the average income of populations in conflict-affected areas. On November 8th 2021, the members of the CWG agreed to increase the MPC transfer value by 15% up to UAH 1,320 (46.59 USD) per person per month. 

Taking this transfer amount and using it to provide assistance to potentially 7 million people for several months would cost 330 million USD a month on direct transfers to people. When adding in the 20% in operating costs for staff and systems to transfer funds this would bring the transfer amount up to 400 million USD, more than four times the current yearly budget for the country operation. Additionally, at 7 million people this would immediately become the largest cash program ever undertaken by humanitarian actors. 

As a result, realistically we would expect to in the initial stages of the response Ukrainian Civil Society, Red Cross-national society, and the State Emergency Service would have to provide most of the immediate humanitarian assistance and protection. However there does not currently seem to have been any information about the State Emergency Service services planning for a large scale response shared to the public, so what this response would like is currently unclear.[5] 

 It is likely that the Humanitarian system would have a Scale-Up activation, which would be a system-wide mobilization in response to a sudden-onset, or significantly deteriorating, humanitarian crisis. This procedure activates agreed on IASC mechanisms and tools to ensure that the system delivers at speed and effectively in support of national authorities and in situ capacity. While this is a fast process it is likely that it would still take several weeks to be able to rapidly scale up any response. 

Additionally, it is expected that while cash assistance will play a key role in any response, due to the scale of the potential crisis all response options would be required, which would direct distributions of in-kind food, NFIs and shelter to displaced populations. 

References 

 [1] State Statistics Service of Ukraine, http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/PXWEB2007/eng/help/help.asp

[2] OCHA Global Humanitarian Overview 2022.

[3] UNHCR global trends in forced displacement 2018

[4] OCHA via Relief Web Data - Feb 11, 2022

[5]https://www.devex.com/news/nervous-aid-workers-in-ukraine-fear-a-humanitarian-disaster-102697