Published Reports

Access our research reports, publications, and resources on humanitarian technology, cash assistance, and social protection.

Research & Analysis (12 reports)

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Research & Analysis External

Treasury Rails: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Humanitarian Operations in an Era of Funding Collapse

This report examines whether regulated stablecoin infrastructure can deliver meaningful treasury efficiencies for humanitarian organisations facing unprecedented funding cuts. With US humanitarian contributions down 88% from peak and 16 of 20 top donors cutting funding, the paper investigates the "Treasury Rails" model - a shift from trapped liquidity in local bank accounts to centralised reserves with instant, peer-to-peer distribution. Drawing on pilot data from Sudan, Myanmar, and Afghanistan, the report assesses evidence for three value propositions: operational resilience when banking systems collapse, cost efficiency through reduced transaction fees and settlement times, and capital optimisation through yield-bearing instruments. It examines the regulatory landscape under MiCA (EU) and the GENIUS Act (US), and provides practical implementation guidance for treasury teams. The report concludes that regulated stablecoin rails warrant serious examination as a treasury tool - not as a solution to the funding crisis, but as operational infrastructure that may help stretched organisations preserve more value per transfer in an era of contraction.

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· ResearchGate
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Research & Analysis External

Grandi's Final Briefing: The Numbers That Confirm System Collapse

On November 6, 2025, UNHCR High Commissioner Filippo Grandi delivered his final briefing to the UN General Assembly's Third Committee, presenting figures that document the most severe contraction of the humanitarian system in modern history. This analysis examines the operational and financial implications of Grandi's briefing, synthesizing data from UNHCR internal assessments, OCHA's Financial Tracking Service (FTS), and the 2025 Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO) to document a structural break in humanitarian financing rather than a temporary funding shock. The findings reveal a 53% collapse in global humanitarian funding over two years (from 43.3 b i l l i o n i n 2022 t o 20.3 billion in 2025), with UNHCR operating at 2015 funding levels while displacement has doubled to 117 million people. The system now operates at 26% coverage—the lowest in recorded history—with critical sectors falling below operational viability: child protection (14% funded), WASH (14% funded), and camp coordination (11% funded). Geographic analysis reveals brutal prioritization, with bottom-tier contexts effectively abandoned: Honduras (10% coverage), Vietnam (5.5%), and Venezuela regional response (8.4%). This paper argues that the humanitarian system is not undergoing reform but regression, reverting to 1990s-era transactional programming while the donor architecture fractures without replacement. The analysis challenges the prevailing "efficiency" narrative, documenting how a 30% workforce reduction, consolidation of 185 offices, and systematic sector collapse represent managed decline rather than strategic repositioning. Drawing on Grandi's explicit rejection of efficiency rhetoric and extensive field testimony, this paper calls for honest acknowledgment that current funding levels cannot sustain the humanitarian model built over the past two decades. Keywords: humanitarian financing, UNHCR, refugee crisis, aid funding, system collapse, donor architecture, Global Humanitarian Overview, multipurpose cash assistance, protection programming, humanitarian reform

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· ResearchGate
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Research & Analysis External

How to Use Stablecoins in Humanitarian Aid: A Practical Framework — Mapping MiCA’s Legal Clarity to ECHO’s Cash and Voucher Assistance Categories

This preprint explores how regulated stablecoins can be classified and used in humanitarian cash and voucher assistance (CVA). It maps the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) onto ECHO’s humanitarian CVA framework, introducing a “Liquidity & Redemption Test” to distinguish between cash and vouchers. Drawing on case studies in Afghanistan (HesabPay), Myanmar (Coala Pay), and Sudan (NRC & Coala Pay), it illustrates how stablecoins can function both as direct-to-beneficiary transfers and as treasury rails for NGOs. The framework provides clarity for donors and implementers by showing that stablecoins are not a new modality, but rather digital rails that can make existing CVA faster, cheaper, and more resilient.

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· MarketImpact
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Research & Analysis External

The Unraveling of U.S. Humanitarian Assistance: Implications for the Global Aid System and Strategies for Adaptation A Critical Analysis of the 2025 Funding Freeze and its Consequences Research Report by Market Impact

This working paper provides a critical analysis of the 2025 U.S. foreign aid freeze, focusing on its immediate and long-term consequences for the global humanitarian system, particularly the operations of USAID and its implementing partners. The Trump administration's decision to halt funding, terminate contracts, and dismantle USAID's infrastructure is examined not as an isolated budgetary measure, but as a deliberate "weaponization of bureaucracy" designed to achieve ideological goals and reshape the landscape of international assistance. The paper documents the immediate cash flow crisis facing aid organizations, leading to widespread program suspensions, staff layoffs, and the potential collapse of numerous NGOs and local partners. It highlights the "wildfire" effect of the freeze, with U.S.-funded programs collapsing while others struggle to meet increased needs with diminished resources. The ineffectiveness of "lifesaving" waivers and the administration's defiance of court orders are also analyzed. Beyond the immediate crisis, the paper explores the strategic shifts required for the humanitarian sector to adapt to a permanently altered funding environment. This includes a frank discussion of the need for radical efficiency, consolidation, and a potential return to a narrower definition of "humanitarian" focused on core survival needs. The inherent conflicts of interest within the UN system, particularly the dual role of UN agencies as both coordinators and implementers, are critically examined. The paper argues that while localization and diversified funding remain long-term goals, they are not immediate solutions to the funding gap. It calls for a brutal honesty about the limitations of what can be achieved and emphasizes the need for difficult choices and strategic prioritization. Finally, the paper outlines a call to action, stressing the need to defend the core principles of humanitarian action, advocate for systemic change, and rebuild trust in a sector facing an unprecedented existential threat. The evolving situation and its inherent uncertainties are acknowledged. This is 298 words.

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· MarketImpact
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Research & Analysis External

US Aid Frozen: A Real Humanitarian Crisis And Lives Will Be Lost

ICTworks (January 27, 2025) published Byrnes' authored piece titled "US Aid Frozen: A Real Humanitarian Crisis And Lives Will Be Lost," providing detailed analysis using UN Financial Tracking Service data: "USAID is now issuing Stop Work orders for all contracts, grants, and cooperative agreements, triggering a 60 to 90-day review period of profound uncertainty. This freeze will unleash a humanitarian catastrophe. This is not hyperbole.

Authors: ICTworks _ Thomas Byrnes

· Other
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Research & Analysis External

Overview of the Ukraine Government’s IDP Social Assistance Support Programmes

The purpose of this paper is to offer an overview of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) Social Assistance programmes currently undertaken by the Government of Ukraine, with a focus on the potential for linkages with humanitarian cash. This paper is part of a series, which includes: Assessing the Current Level of Alignment Between Humanitarian and Social Protection Programmes in Ukraine in November 2022 Overview of the Ukraine Government’s Housing and Utilities Subsidy Programme and the Guaranteed Minimum Income Programme Overview of the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere (UISSS) and the eDopomoga System

Authors: Thomas Byrnes (Expert for STAAR Facility)

· socialprotection.org
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Research & Analysis External

Overview of the Ukraine Government’s Housing and Utilities Subsidy Programme and the Guaranteed Minimum Income Programme

The purpose of this paper is to offer a detailed assessment of the two primary needs-tested Ukrainian government social assistance programmes: the Housing and Utilities Subsidy (HUS) programme and the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) programme. This paper is part of a series, which includes: Assessing the Current Level of Alignment Between Humanitarian and Social Protection Programmes in Ukraine in November 2022 Overview of the Ukraine Government’s IDP Social Assistance Support Programmes Overview of the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere (UISSS) and the eDopomoga System

Authors: Thomas Byrnes (Expert for STAAR Facility)

· socialprotection.org
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Research & Analysis External

Assessing the Current Level of Alignment Between Humanitarian and Social Protection Programmes in Ukraine in November 2022

The purpose of this paper is to offer an overview of the existing situation regarding the establishment of links between humanitarian cash initiatives and government social protection systems. It does so via providing an overview of the social protection systems of the government of Ukraine, identifying who is being covered and who is not, and then assessing the current alignment of humanitarian and social protection programmes. This paper is part of a series, which includes: Overview of the Ukraine Government’s Housing and Utilities Subsidy Programme and the Guaranteed Minimum Income Programme Overview of the Ukraine Government’s IDP Social Assistance Support Programmes Overview of the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere (UISSS) and the eDopomoga System

Authors: Thomas Byrnes (Expert for STAAR Facility)

· socialprotection.org
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Research & Analysis External

Ukraine's IDP and Refugee crisis and Social Protection

Dear All, In the lead up to and now responding to Ukraine's current IDP and Refugee crisis, I have been writing a series of blogs to help support preparedness and response activities. One key factor that has come through all of the posts is the critical role social protection systems will play in responding to this crisis. I am sharing here now the consolidated posts to support any agencies or teams working on the response and stimulate discussions and sharing of tools related to the Ukraine response. I am particularly interested in any discussions on shock responsive social assistance, and how it can be supported in Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Hungary and Moldova in the coming days. 27/02/2022 - Ukraine Refugee Response: Lessons Learnt from the Greece Refugee Response https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-refugee-response-lessons-learnt-from-greece-thomas-byrnes 26/02/2022 - Flash Report: Ukraine Financial Sector Resilience https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-refugee-response-lessons-learnt-from-greece-thomas-byrnes 25/02/2022 - Flash Analysis: Considering Humanitarian Funding needs for Ukraine. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasbyrnes_ukraine-ukrainecrisis-humanitarianaid-activity-6902923326646222848-Nwpk 25/02/2022 - Flash Analysis: Cash Coordination in Ukraine https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasbyrnes_ukraine-ukrainecrisis-unocha-activity-6902675712197627904-pOEl 18/02/2022 - Flash Analysis: Considering Humanitarian response planning for Ukraine based on recent UK Ministry of Defence warning. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasbyrnes_ukrainecrisis-ukraine-cva-activity-6892044377506557953-K3iW 26/01/2022 - Thinking ahead on potential humanitarian response analysis for Ukraine, the current use of Cash and preparedness activities that could be undertaken. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasbyrnes_russiaukrainecrisis-ukraine-humanitarian-activity-6900567854689652736-Ok2V Best Regards Thomas Byrnes Independent Consultant Market Impact Ltd www.marketimpact.org

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· socialprotection.org
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Research & Analysis External

Country Reviews of Social Assistance in Crises (BASIC Compendium)

Thomas Byrnes was an Expert contributor to the Yemen country review, providing critical data on the nexus between humanitarian cash assistance and national social safety nets.

Authors: Institute of Development Studies (IDS) / ALNAP Paul Harvey, Jeremy Lind, et al.

· Other
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Research & Analysis External

CashCap Review 2017

Featured in case studies on Libya and Yemen (p. 5, 22), highlighting work in bridging technical gaps and increasing the scale of cash transfer programming in complex crises.

Authors: Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) Lois Austin (Independent Consultant)

· Other
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