Access our research reports, publications, and resources on humanitarian technology, cash assistance, and social protection.
A field-ready safety framework for humanitarian staff. It provides a structured "3-Step Prompt" method (Role, Rules, Details) and an "Approved Data Checklist" to help teams design, test, and verify AI workflows without compromising data protection or safety standards.
Authors: AidGPT
On November 6, 2025, UNHCR High Commissioner Filippo Grandi delivered his final briefing to the UN General Assembly's Third Committee, presenting figures that document the most severe contraction of the humanitarian system in modern history. This analysis examines the operational and financial implications of Grandi's briefing, synthesizing data from UNHCR internal assessments, OCHA's Financial Tracking Service (FTS), and the 2025 Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO) to document a structural break in humanitarian financing rather than a temporary funding shock. The findings reveal a 53% collapse in global humanitarian funding over two years (from 43.3 b i l l i o n i n 2022 t o 20.3 billion in 2025), with UNHCR operating at 2015 funding levels while displacement has doubled to 117 million people. The system now operates at 26% coverage—the lowest in recorded history—with critical sectors falling below operational viability: child protection (14% funded), WASH (14% funded), and camp coordination (11% funded). Geographic analysis reveals brutal prioritization, with bottom-tier contexts effectively abandoned: Honduras (10% coverage), Vietnam (5.5%), and Venezuela regional response (8.4%). This paper argues that the humanitarian system is not undergoing reform but regression, reverting to 1990s-era transactional programming while the donor architecture fractures without replacement. The analysis challenges the prevailing "efficiency" narrative, documenting how a 30% workforce reduction, consolidation of 185 offices, and systematic sector collapse represent managed decline rather than strategic repositioning. Drawing on Grandi's explicit rejection of efficiency rhetoric and extensive field testimony, this paper calls for honest acknowledgment that current funding levels cannot sustain the humanitarian model built over the past two decades. Keywords: humanitarian financing, UNHCR, refugee crisis, aid funding, system collapse, donor architecture, Global Humanitarian Overview, multipurpose cash assistance, protection programming, humanitarian reform
Authors: Thomas Byrnes
This preprint explores how regulated stablecoins can be classified and used in humanitarian cash and voucher assistance (CVA). It maps the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) onto ECHO’s humanitarian CVA framework, introducing a “Liquidity & Redemption Test” to distinguish between cash and vouchers. Drawing on case studies in Afghanistan (HesabPay), Myanmar (Coala Pay), and Sudan (NRC & Coala Pay), it illustrates how stablecoins can function both as direct-to-beneficiary transfers and as treasury rails for NGOs. The framework provides clarity for donors and implementers by showing that stablecoins are not a new modality, but rather digital rails that can make existing CVA faster, cheaper, and more resilient.
Authors: Thomas Byrnes
This working paper provides a critical analysis of the 2025 U.S. foreign aid freeze, focusing on its immediate and long-term consequences for the global humanitarian system, particularly the operations of USAID and its implementing partners. The Trump administration's decision to halt funding, terminate contracts, and dismantle USAID's infrastructure is examined not as an isolated budgetary measure, but as a deliberate "weaponization of bureaucracy" designed to achieve ideological goals and reshape the landscape of international assistance. The paper documents the immediate cash flow crisis facing aid organizations, leading to widespread program suspensions, staff layoffs, and the potential collapse of numerous NGOs and local partners. It highlights the "wildfire" effect of the freeze, with U.S.-funded programs collapsing while others struggle to meet increased needs with diminished resources. The ineffectiveness of "lifesaving" waivers and the administration's defiance of court orders are also analyzed. Beyond the immediate crisis, the paper explores the strategic shifts required for the humanitarian sector to adapt to a permanently altered funding environment. This includes a frank discussion of the need for radical efficiency, consolidation, and a potential return to a narrower definition of "humanitarian" focused on core survival needs. The inherent conflicts of interest within the UN system, particularly the dual role of UN agencies as both coordinators and implementers, are critically examined. The paper argues that while localization and diversified funding remain long-term goals, they are not immediate solutions to the funding gap. It calls for a brutal honesty about the limitations of what can be achieved and emphasizes the need for difficult choices and strategic prioritization. Finally, the paper outlines a call to action, stressing the need to defend the core principles of humanitarian action, advocate for systemic change, and rebuild trust in a sector facing an unprecedented existential threat. The evolving situation and its inherent uncertainties are acknowledged. This is 298 words.
Authors: Thomas Byrnes
ICTworks (January 27, 2025) published Byrnes' authored piece titled "US Aid Frozen: A Real Humanitarian Crisis And Lives Will Be Lost," providing detailed analysis using UN Financial Tracking Service data: "USAID is now issuing Stop Work orders for all contracts, grants, and cooperative agreements, triggering a 60 to 90-day review period of profound uncertainty. This freeze will unleash a humanitarian catastrophe. This is not hyperbole.
Authors: ICTworks _ Thomas Byrnes
ICTworks (January 27, 2025) published Thomas Byrnes' authored piece titled "Using AI in Humanitarian Contexts: Examining Ethical Challenges" (December 17, 2024), in which he explores AI deployment ethics using Yemen as a case study, discussing identification challenges across 26 different ID types and the tension between informed consent and emergency assistance
Authors: ICTworks _ Thomas Byrnes
This technical report outlines strategies for integrating responsible AI solutions into NRC Ukraine’s humanitarian programs. It explores opportunities for improving program accountability and efficiency while addressing potential risks and barriers to adoption in complex environments. Key recommendations focus on ethical AI practices and building digital infrastructures that align with humanitarian principles.
Authors: Thomas Byrnes
Thomas Byrnes Co-authored technical guidance for the Ukraine Cash Working Group, defining the strategic transition from humanitarian cash to government social safety nets.
Authors: Clara Decamps, Lukáš Voborský, Frederic Wiesenbach and Thomas Byrnes
This report explores the transformative potential of Generative AI within Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance (MPCA) programs in humanitarian contexts. It identifies the opportunities AI tools provide for MPCA program enhancements, as well as associated risks, barriers to adoption, and practical recommendations. The report provides insights based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with humanitarian professionals, offering a roadmap for responsible AI integration.
Authors: Thomas Byrnes
As Ukraine navigates through the complexities of 2023, marked by unprecedented challenges and transformative opportunities, this report presents an essential updated analysis of the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere (UISSS). Building upon our comprehensive 2022 study we delve deeper into the dynamic shifts in Ukraine's social protection systems, with a specific focus on the pivotal developments within the UISSS. This study, grounded in an exhaustive review of internal Ukrainian government documents and enriched by discussions with key personnel from the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy, is designed to capture the most current strategic advancements in the UISSS. Addressing a diverse audience comprising civil society, government policymakers, social protection experts, and international stakeholders, including the UN, donors, and the World Bank, our report offers a thorough assessment of the UISSS's critical role in the modernisation of Ukraine's social protection framework. Amidst transformative national reforms, understanding the evolving landscape of the UISSS becomes imperative. This report not only provides insights into the system's impact on service delivery and operational efficiency but also supports decision-makers in strategic planning for social protection reform and digital progression.
Authors: Thomas Byrnes (Expert for STAAR Facility)
A technical analysis assessing the alignment between humanitarian multi-purpose cash assistance and Ukraine’s government social protection systems (eDopomoga/UISSS), identifying gaps in coverage and data sharing during the 2022 invasion.
Authors: Thomas Byrnes (Expert for STAAR Facility)
The purpose of this paper is to offer an overview of the existing situation regarding the establishment of links between humanitarian cash initiatives and government social protection systems. It does so via providing an overview of the social protection systems of the government of Ukraine, identifying who is being covered and who is not, and then assessing the current alignment of humanitarian and social protection programmes. This paper is part of a series, which includes: Overview of the Ukraine Government’s Housing and Utilities Subsidy Programme and the Guaranteed Minimum Income Programme Overview of the Ukraine Government’s IDP Social Assistance Support Programmes Overview of the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere (UISSS) and the eDopomoga System
Authors: Thomas Byrnes (Expert for STAAR Facility)
The purpose of this paper is to offer an overview of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) Social Assistance programmes currently undertaken by the Government of Ukraine, with a focus on the potential for linkages with humanitarian cash. This paper is part of a series, which includes: Assessing the Current Level of Alignment Between Humanitarian and Social Protection Programmes in Ukraine in November 2022 Overview of the Ukraine Government’s Housing and Utilities Subsidy Programme and the Guaranteed Minimum Income Programme Overview of the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere (UISSS) and the eDopomoga System
Authors: Thomas Byrnes (Expert for STAAR Facility)
The purpose of this paper is to offer a detailed assessment of the two primary needs-tested Ukrainian government social assistance programmes: the Housing and Utilities Subsidy (HUS) programme and the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) programme. This paper is part of a series, which includes: Assessing the Current Level of Alignment Between Humanitarian and Social Protection Programmes in Ukraine in November 2022 Overview of the Ukraine Government’s IDP Social Assistance Support Programmes Overview of the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere (UISSS) and the eDopomoga System
Authors: Thomas Byrnes (Expert for STAAR Facility)
Dear All, In the lead up to and now responding to Ukraine's current IDP and Refugee crisis, I have been writing a series of blogs to help support preparedness and response activities. One key factor that has come through all of the posts is the critical role social protection systems will play in responding to this crisis. I am sharing here now the consolidated posts to support any agencies or teams working on the response and stimulate discussions and sharing of tools related to the Ukraine response. I am particularly interested in any discussions on shock responsive social assistance, and how it can be supported in Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Hungary and Moldova in the coming days. 27/02/2022 - Ukraine Refugee Response: Lessons Learnt from the Greece Refugee Response https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-refugee-response-lessons-learnt-from-greece-thomas-byrnes 26/02/2022 - Flash Report: Ukraine Financial Sector Resilience https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-refugee-response-lessons-learnt-from-greece-thomas-byrnes 25/02/2022 - Flash Analysis: Considering Humanitarian Funding needs for Ukraine. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasbyrnes_ukraine-ukrainecrisis-humanitarianaid-activity-6902923326646222848-Nwpk 25/02/2022 - Flash Analysis: Cash Coordination in Ukraine https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasbyrnes_ukraine-ukrainecrisis-unocha-activity-6902675712197627904-pOEl 18/02/2022 - Flash Analysis: Considering Humanitarian response planning for Ukraine based on recent UK Ministry of Defence warning. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasbyrnes_ukrainecrisis-ukraine-cva-activity-6892044377506557953-K3iW 26/01/2022 - Thinking ahead on potential humanitarian response analysis for Ukraine, the current use of Cash and preparedness activities that could be undertaken. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasbyrnes_russiaukrainecrisis-ukraine-humanitarian-activity-6900567854689652736-Ok2V Best Regards Thomas Byrnes Independent Consultant Market Impact Ltd www.marketimpact.org
Authors: Thomas Byrnes
Thomas Byrnes was an Expert contributor to the Yemen country review, providing critical data on the nexus between humanitarian cash assistance and national social safety nets.
Authors: Institute of Development Studies (IDS) / ALNAP Paul Harvey, Jeremy Lind, et al.
Cited as a CashCap expert contributing to the "Cash and Voucher Assistance for Health" framework during the WHO expert meeting in Beirut.
Authors: World Health Organization (WHO) / Global Health Cluster
The definitive market functionality study co-led by Thomas Byrnes that provided the evidence base for scaling cash assistance across Yemen's conflict-affected governorates.
Authors: REACH Initiative / Thomas Byrnes
Featured in case studies on Libya and Yemen (p. 5, 22), highlighting work in bridging technical gaps and increasing the scale of cash transfer programming in complex crises.
Authors: Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) Lois Austin (Independent Consultant)
Thomas Byrnes is Referenced as IFRC Cash Delegate (p. 8) regarding the protection-focused design of early cash pilot programs in Greece during the European refugee crisis.
Authors: Neetu Mahil International Rescue Committee (IRC)