Published Reports

Access our research reports, publications, and resources on humanitarian technology, cash assistance, and social protection.

Research & Analysis External

Grandi's Final Briefing: The Numbers That Confirm System Collapse

On November 6, 2025, UNHCR High Commissioner Filippo Grandi delivered his final briefing to the UN General Assembly's Third Committee, presenting figures that document the most severe contraction of the humanitarian system in modern history. This analysis examines the operational and financial implications of Grandi's briefing, synthesizing data from UNHCR internal assessments, OCHA's Financial Tracking Service (FTS), and the 2025 Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO) to document a structural break in humanitarian financing rather than a temporary funding shock. The findings reveal a 53% collapse in global humanitarian funding over two years (from 43.3 b i l l i o n i n 2022 t o 20.3 billion in 2025), with UNHCR operating at 2015 funding levels while displacement has doubled to 117 million people. The system now operates at 26% coverage—the lowest in recorded history—with critical sectors falling below operational viability: child protection (14% funded), WASH (14% funded), and camp coordination (11% funded). Geographic analysis reveals brutal prioritization, with bottom-tier contexts effectively abandoned: Honduras (10% coverage), Vietnam (5.5%), and Venezuela regional response (8.4%). This paper argues that the humanitarian system is not undergoing reform but regression, reverting to 1990s-era transactional programming while the donor architecture fractures without replacement. The analysis challenges the prevailing "efficiency" narrative, documenting how a 30% workforce reduction, consolidation of 185 offices, and systematic sector collapse represent managed decline rather than strategic repositioning. Drawing on Grandi's explicit rejection of efficiency rhetoric and extensive field testimony, this paper calls for honest acknowledgment that current funding levels cannot sustain the humanitarian model built over the past two decades. Keywords: humanitarian financing, UNHCR, refugee crisis, aid funding, system collapse, donor architecture, Global Humanitarian Overview, multipurpose cash assistance, protection programming, humanitarian reform

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

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Research & Analysis External

How to Use Stablecoins in Humanitarian Aid: A Practical Framework — Mapping MiCA’s Legal Clarity to ECHO’s Cash and Voucher Assistance Categories

This preprint explores how regulated stablecoins can be classified and used in humanitarian cash and voucher assistance (CVA). It maps the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) onto ECHO’s humanitarian CVA framework, introducing a “Liquidity & Redemption Test” to distinguish between cash and vouchers. Drawing on case studies in Afghanistan (HesabPay), Myanmar (Coala Pay), and Sudan (NRC & Coala Pay), it illustrates how stablecoins can function both as direct-to-beneficiary transfers and as treasury rails for NGOs. The framework provides clarity for donors and implementers by showing that stablecoins are not a new modality, but rather digital rails that can make existing CVA faster, cheaper, and more resilient.

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· MarketImpact
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Research & Analysis External

The Unraveling of U.S. Humanitarian Assistance: Implications for the Global Aid System and Strategies for Adaptation A Critical Analysis of the 2025 Funding Freeze and its Consequences Research Report by Market Impact

This working paper provides a critical analysis of the 2025 U.S. foreign aid freeze, focusing on its immediate and long-term consequences for the global humanitarian system, particularly the operations of USAID and its implementing partners. The Trump administration's decision to halt funding, terminate contracts, and dismantle USAID's infrastructure is examined not as an isolated budgetary measure, but as a deliberate "weaponization of bureaucracy" designed to achieve ideological goals and reshape the landscape of international assistance. The paper documents the immediate cash flow crisis facing aid organizations, leading to widespread program suspensions, staff layoffs, and the potential collapse of numerous NGOs and local partners. It highlights the "wildfire" effect of the freeze, with U.S.-funded programs collapsing while others struggle to meet increased needs with diminished resources. The ineffectiveness of "lifesaving" waivers and the administration's defiance of court orders are also analyzed. Beyond the immediate crisis, the paper explores the strategic shifts required for the humanitarian sector to adapt to a permanently altered funding environment. This includes a frank discussion of the need for radical efficiency, consolidation, and a potential return to a narrower definition of "humanitarian" focused on core survival needs. The inherent conflicts of interest within the UN system, particularly the dual role of UN agencies as both coordinators and implementers, are critically examined. The paper argues that while localization and diversified funding remain long-term goals, they are not immediate solutions to the funding gap. It calls for a brutal honesty about the limitations of what can be achieved and emphasizes the need for difficult choices and strategic prioritization. Finally, the paper outlines a call to action, stressing the need to defend the core principles of humanitarian action, advocate for systemic change, and rebuild trust in a sector facing an unprecedented existential threat. The evolving situation and its inherent uncertainties are acknowledged. This is 298 words.

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· MarketImpact
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AI & Innovation External

Responsible AI Adoption in Complex Environments : An Analysis for NRC Ukraine's Humanitarian Efforts

This technical report outlines strategies for integrating responsible AI solutions into NRC Ukraine’s humanitarian programs. It explores opportunities for improving program accountability and efficiency while addressing potential risks and barriers to adoption in complex environments. Key recommendations focus on ethical AI practices and building digital infrastructures that align with humanitarian principles.

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· MarketImpact
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AI & Innovation External

Harnessing the Transformative Potential of Generative AI for Humanitarian Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance Opportunities, Risks, Barriers, and Recommendations

This report explores the transformative potential of Generative AI within Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance (MPCA) programs in humanitarian contexts. It identifies the opportunities AI tools provide for MPCA program enhancements, as well as associated risks, barriers to adoption, and practical recommendations. The report provides insights based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with humanitarian professionals, offering a roadmap for responsible AI integration.

Authors: Thomas Byrnes

· MarketImpact
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